The Ukraine-Russia Crisis: The Context Behind the Conflict
Chances are that you have heard quite a bit about tensions at the Russia-Ukraine border leading up to the Russian invasion. You may have been wondering about the roots and the cause of what’s currently happening. For the past eight years–since February 20th, 2014 to be specific– Russia and Ukraine have been engaged in a war called the Russo-Ukrainian war. In the Russo-Ukrainian war, Russia has deployed a total of 900,000 active troops. The Russian forces are unequally segregated among the following divisions:
Army: 280,000
Navy: 150,000
Aerospace Forces: 165,000
Strategic Rocket Forces: 50,000
Airborne: 45,000
Special Operations Forces: 1,000
Railway Force: 29,000
Command and Support: 180,000
Paramilitary: 554,000
Reserve: 2,000,000
In stark contrast to the immense Russian forces, Ukraine has 209,000 active troops. Of these troops:
145,000 are in the Army
11,000 are in the Navy
45,000 are in the Air Force
8,000 are Airborne
102,000 are in the Paramilitary
And 900,000 are in reserve
The disparity in troops across the board raises a few questions, namely, “Why is Russia interested in Ukraine?” and similarly, “Why is Russia willing to sacrifice hundreds of thousands of troops to occupy Ukraine?”
Why is Russia interested in Ukraine?
The Russian Government originally feared that Ukraine’s membership in the European Union (EU) and NATO would complete a western wall of allied countries by restricting Russia’s access to the Black Sea. NATO once was a Western European Organization but now, NATO is slowly moving eastwards. NATO has gradually begun flanking Russia and offering membership to all Border Nations to Russia, most significantly Estonia. Russia fears encirclement by NATO and subsequently having missiles placed in those countries by NATO, which could be a threat to Russia. Henceforth, Russia wants to draw a line in the sand with Ukraine, as evidenced by the current geopolitical conflict. Some have speculated that Russia has had a major strategic and military objective of securing warm-water ports for its Navy. Most of the western coastline of Russia is so far north that it is ice-locked for much of the year. Ukraine has a major warm-water port in Crimea that Russia has enviously coveted. Furthermore, Ukraine borders five countries that were formerly under the control of the USSR. Retaking Ukraine would be a significant step forward in Putin’s known objective of reconstituting the former Russian empire. If Ukraine was put under Russian control, it would greatly facilitate preparations to threaten and invade nations from Lithuania and Poland to Romania.
Will Ukraine join NATO?
According to the 1995 study on NATO enlargement, a country wishing to join NATO must fulfill the following criteria:
A functioning democratic political system based on a market economy
The fair treatment of minority populations
A commitment to the peaceful resolution of conflicts
The ability and willingness to make a contribution to NATO operations
A commitment to democratic civil-military relations and institutional structures
Several of these points are seen as reasons to prevent Ukraine from joining NATO. Despite possible violations, the criteria are rather ambiguous and have a wide range of interpretations. For instance, Ukraine holds standard, multiparty elections, and according to the US International Trade Administration, Ukraine has an “emerging free economy”. In tandem, Ukraine has passed numerous laws guaranteeing equality for minorities and is not currently ruled by a military government. Though my points are widely disputed, they would not pose any formal roadblocks to Ukrainian membership in NATO. By supporting Ukraine while excluding it from NATO, NATO could avoid a war with Russia. Consequently, Ukrainian membership in NATO is a possibility but remains unlikely for the time being.
Why does Ukraine want to join NATO?
Article 5 of the North Atlantic Treaty defines an attack on one NATO member as an attack on the entire alliance. Russia perceives NATO as a “hostile, anti-Russian military coalition.” Ukraine has been engaged in a proxy conflict with Russia that has been labeled as a “series of aggressive actions” by Russia. If Article 5 were to be applied to the ongoing conflict, it would bring all of NATO, including the United States, into war with Russia.
Now that Russia has invaded Ukraine, the Ukrainian president, President Zelenskyy, wants to join NATO more than ever. Joining NATO would supply additional force, particularly from the West, that he hopes would prevent a Russian annexation of Ukraine. In all likelihood, NATO members will restrict Ukrainian NATO membership to prevent a larger war with Russia, India, China, Belarus, Iran, Syria, and Kazakhstan. Given Russia’s interest in Ukraine, it is hard to determine whether or not Russia would voluntarily end its assault. The eyes of the world are watching.
Dashel Myers is a Freshman attending Ethical Culture Fieldston School in the Bronx. He is passionate about politics, immigration, and climate change. Dashel spends his free time running, writing, and watching YouTube. Dashel hopes to use his voice through writing to spread awareness on the issues that he is passionate about and increase the social media presence of Gen Z.