A Brief Analysis of Trump’s Four Years of Nuclear Policy
For decades, Presidents have been followed by a fifty-pound briefcase with the ability to end the world as we know it. This briefcase, affectionately known as the “nuclear football”, is a compact assortment of every resource required to initiate an immediate launch of up to 4,000 nuclear warheads. There are no checks upon the incumbent President’s ability to launch this deadly football at any time; the resident of the Oval Office has absolute control over the most destructive weapon available to mankind. This briefcase was promptly delivered to President Trump when he took office, marking the start of a tumultuous and near unprecedented four years of nuclear politics.
Trump’s position on nuclear weapons can be characterized by three main actions: demands for proliferation, threat of detonation, and withdrawal from nuclear agreements.
Demands for Proliferation
On August 9th, 2017, Trump tweeted: “My first order as President was to renovate and modernize our nuclear arsenal. It is now far stronger and more powerful than ever before…” From the beginning of his presidency, Trump has expressed an ardent desire to develop America’s nuclear arsenals. He requested a tenfold increase of nuclear weaponry, a statement that brought shock to military officials. Concerningly, he remains a staunch advocate of mining uranium (an ingredient necessary to the creation of nuclear weapons) on Native American lands, a practice that Native Americans have fought against for decades. Trump has reportedly contemplated resuming nuclear testing, an action that would not only cause extreme international backlash but also endanger ecosystems and human lives. He even called to strip funding from a Pentagon-based coronavirus taskforce in order to fund nuclear modernization. Furthermore, Trump swiftly disregarded the Obama-era decision to prohibit the development of nuclear weapons capable of being launched from sea and spurred the creation of not only cruise missiles but low yield nuclear weapons. Over the next thirty years, an estimated 1.3 trillion is slated to be spent on nuclear proliferation.
Threat of Detonation
The Trump administration made it apparent that they would not hesitate to catalyze a nuclear war if they felt the situation warranted it. Frighteningly, what the administration considers a viable reason for launch is becoming increasingly broad. The 2018 Nuclear Posture declares that cyberattacks could warrant a nuclear response, and also recognizes first-use policy as an essential aspect of deterrence, a position considered problematic and potentially dangerous. Trump has stated nuclear weapons must remain a possible solution to all foreign interactions, and swore to consider nuclear attacks in regards to Europe. Rhetorical aggression, often referencing nuclear power, is a hallmark of Trump’s interactions with foreign adversities.
In an increasingly nuclear world, it is easy to see how such cavalier expressions of violence could escalate and pose tangible threats. In 2017, North Korea, a formidable nuclear power, exchanged a series of hostile remarks with President Trump, culminating in North Korean missiles being launched as a warning. De-escalation followed; however, as of July 4th, 2020, North Korea will refuse to engage in negotiation over nuclear power, effectively shattering the possibility for denuclearization and stable relations. Choe Son Hui, the North Korean Vice Minister of foreign affairs, asseverated that “the U.S. is mistaken if it thinks things like negotiations would still work on us…we do not feel any need to sit face to face with the U.S., as it does not consider the DPRK-U.S. dialogue as nothing more than a tool for grappling its political crisis.”
Withdrawal from Nuclear Agreements
Trump has abandoned a shocking number of international agreements and demonstrated a reluctance to participate in global discussions of denuclearization. Upon Trump’s entrance into office, the United States adopted a drastically different approach to navigating the perilous climate of foreign nuclear politics, focusing on advancing nuclear capability rather than seeking diplomatic peace as a method of ensuring safety. Under Trump’s guidance, the United States left the Trans-Pacific Partnership, the Open Skies Treaty, The INF Treaty, JCPOA, and New START. Similarly, discussions about ratification of the Comprehensive Nuclear Test Ban Treaty were discontinued.
The nuclear football, symbol of the perpetual risk of nuclear warfare, has traveled with Trump amid these portentous decisions. The briefcase was even present at Trump’s bedside during his affliction with Covid-19 in Walter Reed Military hospital, where he took dexamethasone, a medication known to cause mood swings and psychotic thoughts. Although there is an established precedent of presidents ceding authority of the football to the incumbent Vice President when they are in a debilitated state, Trump chose to retain authority of nuclear launch. As his term as President concludes, we are left to wonder how Trump’s approach to nuclear affairs will affect future events, international and domestic.
Grainne Popen is a student at Stoneman Douglas Highschool who is deeply passionate about International Relations and writing. She is the captain of Lincoln Douglas Debate and an avid competitor. She advocates for social justice and policy change within her community through writing, lobbying, and protesting.