Are the Abraham Accords Destabilizing the Middle East?

The Abraham Accords Peace Agreement is a historic peace and normalization agreement signed between the United Arab Emirates (UAE) and Israel on September 15, 2020. Notably, the UAE is only the third Arab country after Egypt (1979) and Jordan (1994) to normalize relations with Israel. 

The accord offers many firsts, including the UAE’s formal recognition of  Israel, the commencement of passenger aircraft services between the two countries, the establishment of embassies, and the plan to build a "strategic agenda for the Middle East” with the US. Before understanding the full implications of the accord, it is necessary to understand why Israel has such high stakes and gains.

Historic Antagonism between Israel and the Middle Eastern Muslim World

Because it promised Israel a separate homeland, carved out from the state of Palestine, the Balfour Declaration of 1917 created unrest, and the situation it perpetuated only worsened during the 1930s and 40s with Hitler's persecution and the large-scale immigration of Jews into Palestine. After World War II, the declaration of the State of Israel in 1948 resulted in the Arab-Israeli war, which ended with Israel capturing more Palestinian territories. 

The next major war involving Israel was in 1967. Israel launched a preemptive airstrike on Egypt and ground offensives in neighboring Syria and Jordan, resulting in a crushing defeat for the participating Arab states. The war not only enabled Israel to occupy the Gaza Strip but also ensured the capture of the Sinai Peninsula from Egypt, Golan Heights from Syria, and the West Bank from Jordan.

The Yom Kippur War of 1973 between Egypt and Israel resulted in political gains for both countries and led to the Camp David Accords of 1978, which in turn resulted in the Israel-Egypt Peace Treaty in 1979.

As the following decades witnessed increased intra-regional conflict between Israel, Palestine, and their neighboring countries, the rise of the Palestinian Liberation Organisation (PLO), Hamas, and the Intifadas (Palestinian uprising against Israeli occupation of Gaza and West Bank) created further tensions in the region.

Presently, Israel occupies most land areas of the earlier Palestine region. It has also favored the aggressive settlement of Jews in the West Bank and East Jerusalem. There are also around 400,000 Israeli settlers in the West Bank and 200,000 in East Jerusalem.

Israel has always lived with conflict and perceives other countries in the region as threats to its existence. Although the US strongly supports Israel, its hostile neighborhood tends to negatively impact its foreign diplomacy efforts. Israel has thus always looked to lessen its foes in the region. The Camp David Agreement in 1978, brokered by US President Jimmy Carter between Egypt and Israel, was significant for the latter. 

While the Abraham Accords are not much different from the Camp David Accords in terms of their primary objective, the suddenness and timing of the move nonetheless hint at some of their questionable motives. 

Regime Stability 

Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu has been facing backlash for corruption allegations, favoring big businesses, and his inept handling of the ongoing Covid-19 pandemic. Regardless, the peace deal with the UAE and Bahrain, which could soon include more Arab countries, is a huge diplomatic success for Netanyahu and is likely to swing public opinion in favor of the regime and act as a diversion.

The Middle Eastern states also seem likely poised to strengthen their authoritarian regime and geopolitical goals. The UAE, Bahrain, and the key yet silent player Saudi Arabia (without whose approval the agreements would have fallen through) normalizing relations with Israel would appear to be too progressive for the Democrats, now that they’ve come to power. 

For Donald Trump, the peace deal came at a crucial time in the recently concluded presidential election. With public unrest due to the Black Lives Matter (BLM) movement and disastrous handling of the pandemic, the peace agreements helped divert attention, although they seem to have had little impact on the elections. Notably, they are also capable of neutralizing Iran.

Containing Iran

The US and Iran have had tense relations since the fall of the Shah and the Islamic revolution of 1979. The Iran hostage crisis (1979-81) and the shooting of an Iranian passenger plane in 1988 have worsened bilateral relations, and in the 2000s, Iran's uranium enrichment capability and fears concerning its nuclear arsenal led to stringent sanctions.

The Joint Comprehensive Plan of Action (JCPOA), devised by the Obama administration in 2015, led to the removal of sanctions as Iran significantly reduced its nuclear stockpile under strict supervision. However, with Donald Trump abandoning the Iran nuclear deal in 2018 and imposing more stringent sanctions, Iran has significantly increased its nuclear stockpile.

Israel and the Sunni majority states in the Middle East have their independent antagonisms against Iran, thus by bringing the conflicting parties to a mutual agreement, the US has successfully created a unified balancing power in the region against Iran.

The Nuclear Dimension

For Israel, a nuclear-weapon-free region (barring its possession of nuclear weapons) is vital for its survival. Israel uses intelligence, spy networks, and covert operations to forbid its neighbors from acquiring nuclear weapons.

Thus far Israel has launched air attacks on two enemy nuclear facilities. The first was Operation Opera/Operation Babylon in 1981, an airstrike that damaged an under-construction Iraqi nuclear reactor. The second airstrike, codenamed Operation Out of the Box, was conducted in 2007 on a Syrian nuclear reactor. The mission involved low-altitude stealth flying to skip radars and bomb the reactor.

Iran, meanwhile, has made its nuclear ambitions clear since Trump's abandoning of the JCPOA. Whether the Abraham Accords would provoke Iran to build nuclear weapons or slow them down is yet to be seen. 

Israel has been trying to decelerate Iran's push for nuclear weaponry since the 2000s. Due to the distance involved and logistical difficulties, Israel has thus far avoided a direct airstrike on the Iranian nuclear facility, instead developing complex bombing techniques in the mold of the attack on Natanz nuclear facility in central Iran, featuring a Stuxnet-type attack.

But what the peace deal could do for Israel is ease an airstrike on an Iranian nuclear facility if required. Israel would have the option not to circumnavigate or pass through other enemy countries. It could use the air bases in Saudi Arabia or the UAE to attack Iran across the Persian Gulf or the Straits of Hormuz.

The Sectarian Divide

The Middle East is a complex region with sectarian violence between the Shias and Sunnis driving most conflicts. Before the Iranian revolution, Saudi Arabia saw itself as the de facto leader of the Muslim world. However, since 1979, an ideological split has resulted in Iran representing Shia Muslims and Saudi representing Sunni Muslims.

The Middle East has a mixed population of both sects, and differences between them have led to bloody civil wars and rebellions since the turn of the millennium. James Heslin discusses the long-term effects of wars and conflicts in his Sociology: A Down-to-Earth Approach, stating that conflicts have a detrimental effect on collective morality, which leads to dehumanization. Heslin describes dehumanization as “an act or process of reducing people to objects that do not deserve the treatment accorded to humans”. Conflicts also give rise to further violence by nurturing complex geopolitical alignments and the sale of war technology.

Syria, a Sunni majority country is ruled by an Alawite (Shia). Despite massive rebellion and the ISIS takeover, Iran, backed by Russia, has helped the regime retain power. Contrarily, Iraq is a Shia majority country that was ruled by Sadaam Hussein, a Sunni. With the fall of Sadaam, the Iran-backed Shia government controls Iraq.

Similarly, Bahrain is a Shia majority country (almost 85%) ruled by a minority Sunni kingdom. Realizing the potential threat of Iran, the peace deal offers Bahrain support from both Israel and the US.

In the case of Yemen, which has an almost equal population of both sects, the situation is much worse: the Shia Houthi rebels have been at war with the government, resulting in one of the worst humanitarian crises. Saudi and the UAE actively oppose the Houthis and the deal could tempt them to capitalize on their increased access to AI and advanced weapons in their bid to attack Yemen.

Defense Deal

The accords also effectively remove hurdles for the UAE to acquire  F-35A Lightning II fighter jets. The UAE has long pursued these fighter jets, which are considered one of the best and with reports of the Trump administration willing to sell 50 F-35A fighter jets, it can dramatically shift the balance of power in favor of the UAE (Saudi). The weapons deal and balance tilt could lead to a trail of destruction in Yemen as well as emboldening Saudi and the UAE to disturb the status quo in Syria, which could result in a major catastrophe.

What About Palestine?

According to the UAE, the primary reasons to sign the accords were to stop Israeli settlement in the West Bank and to reach an amicable settlement of Palestine’s statehood. However, the statements barely satisfy the primary objective of legitimizing its actions to the Muslim world and Palestine. The peace accords will not reverse trends of Israeli settlement or result in a two-state solution favorable to Palestine. Israel considers Hamas and the Palestine Liberation Organisation (PLO) as threats to its sovereignty. Thus, the accord offers no real hope for Palestine.

Conclusion

The Middle East is not a monolith, as common understanding has it. It is a very diverse region that includes West Asia, Egypt, and Turkey. Iran, Israel, and Turkey are the major non-Arab countries, and they all have their own geopolitical goals and national interests. 

The Abraham Accords, brokered by the US and benefitting Israel, Saudi, the UAE, and the Bahrain kingdom, is a peace based on the zero-sum game—that is, one benefits at the loss of the other. 

The peace deals also raise extreme questions (both constructive and destructive) on issues of nuclear stockpile, sectarian violence, and defense agreement. The Abraham Accords could at best be what Johan Galtung would call negative peace, one centered on the absence of violence (if at all). 

Negative peace sustains under certain conditions and peacekeeping. However, a slight imbalance could disrupt peace, making the situation volatile. By not addressing Palestine’s statehood and the Yemen crisis, the accords fail to create a long-lasting positive peace by removing the latent hostilities.

Dennis Wesley is an independent educational researcher. His interests include interdisciplinary practices and methods. He mainly writes about humanities, mental health, academia, and sustainability. You can follow his blog and Twitter here and here respectively.